定投比特币策略的升级方案
After confirming the dollar-cost averaging (DCA) investment strategy, the returns have been quite impressive along the way.
Interestingly, investment has the same time cycle as the World Cup and European Championship---4 years.
The growth over these 4 years: both the returns and what I've learned have been quite good, all thanks to DCA after selecting the right investment target.
However, after comparing with some industry friends, I found there's still room for adjustment, so I conducted some research.
Since Bitcoin has its own patterns, regular DCA can be upgraded to scientifically-based DCA methods. I recently came across two DCA strategies: Pyramid DCA and ahr999 DCA.
Of course, I still follow the approach of first getting it and practicing (combining it with my own DCA), then simultaneously conducting in-depth research.
Below, I'll record and introduce these two strategies:
1. Pyramid DCA Strategy
According to the latest data, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $73,750.07 on March 14, 2024. Based on this new all-time high, we can reformulate the pyramid DCA strategy.
Pyramid DCA Strategy
All-time High: $73,750
Invest a portion of funds for every 10% drop, with each investment amount doubling
Investment Plan
First drop to 73,750 * 0.9 = $66,375: Invest 1 unit of DCA funds
First drop to 73,750 * 0.8 = $59,000: Invest 2 units of DCA funds
First drop to 73,750 * 0.7 = $51,625: Invest 4 units of DCA funds
First drop to 73,750 * 0.6 = $44,250: Invest 8 units of DCA funds
First drop to 73,750 * 0.5 = $36,875: Invest 16 units of DCA funds
First drop to 73,750 * 0.4 = $29,500: Invest 32 units of DCA funds
First drop to 73,750 * 0.3 = $22,125: Invest 64 units of DCA funds
Other Rules
New High Reset: If Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high, recalculate prices based on the latest price and restart this strategy.
Range Fluctuation: If Bitcoin fluctuates within a certain price range for several consecutive months, buy Bitcoin once per month on a fixed date according to the share amount of the current price segment.
Initially, I will allocate half of the DCA funds for the pyramid strategy investment, while the rest will continue with the original DCA strategy.
2. ahr999 Strategy
ahr999 Index = (Bitcoin Price / 200-Day DCA Cost) × (Bitcoin Price / Exponential Growth Valuation)
The strategy indicates:
Only 8.5% of the time, the ahr999 index is less than 0.45, which is the bottom-fishing zone;
46.3% of the time, the ahr999 index is between 0.45 and 1.2, which is the DCA zone;
29.3% of the time, the ahr999 index is between 1.2 and 5, which is the waiting-for-takeoff zone.
For future DCA, I will refer to the ahr999 index. When it is >1.2, consider investing a small amount or not investing at all. When it is <0.45, consider investing multiple units of funds.
You can get the current day's ahr999 index here: https://www.coinglass.com/zh/pro/i/ahr999
For future DCA, I will combine these two upgraded strategies with the original strategy.
Principle: Investment involves risks, and investment amount should not exceed 1/3 of assets.